Lesson 7: Recency Bias: The Last Year Is Not the Future. Five up quarters don't predict a sixth. The base rate barely moves.
Five up quarters. Does the sixth get more likely?
Trust your gut before we check the base rate.
Assessment
A broad index has risen five quarters in a row. How does that streak change the odds that the sixth quarter is also up?
Five up quarters 📈 So what about the sixth?