Is Bitcoin's 200-Week Moving Average Really the Floor?
Price broke through it at most bottoms. A year later, it was always higher.
By Pavel Penev, MScFounder, TradeWize · 10+ years trading the marketsThe short answer
No, it isn't a floor. Bitcoin closed below its 200-week moving average at four of its five big bottoms since 2014, and in 2022-23 it spent 36 weeks below it. But it's still a useful line. Only 8.5% of weekly closes have been below it, and every one of those weeks was followed by a higher price a year later. The median gain was 123%. Today bitcoin sits 29% above the line.
The 200-week moving average is the average of bitcoin's last 200 weekly closes. That's almost four years of prices in one number.
You'll often hear that it's the floor of every bear market, and that buying near it has never lost money. We tested both claims against every week the line has existed, from May 2014 to 3 October 2026.
Finding 1: it isn't a floor
Since 2014, bitcoin has had five big bottoms: the lows of its bear markets, plus the March 2020 crash. Price closed below the 200-week line at four of them: 2015, the March 2020 crash, 2022 and 2026.
Only one held. On 15 December 2018, bitcoin closed at $3,180, with the line at $3,164. It's the bottom people tend to point to when they call the line a floor.
Weekly closes on a log scale, with the 200-week line. The red marks are the 55 weeks that closed below it.
| Low | Close | 200-week line | Against the line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 January 2015 | $171 | $191 | 10% below |
| 15 December 2018 | $3,180 | $3,164 | right on it |
| 12 March 2020 | $4,842 | $5,479 | 12% below |
| 21 November 2022 | $15,766 | $24,007 | 34% below |
| 30 June 2026 | $58,526 | $62,442 | 6% below |
Daily closes. The line is its value at the latest Sunday close. The March 2020 low was a crash inside a longer fall, so our bear-market study doesn't count it as its own bear market.
One more fall is worth a look. In July 2021, bitcoin dropped more than half from its April high. That counts as a bear market in our study. But it bottomed 115% above the line, nowhere near it. The line only came into play at the deep, long bottoms.
Finding 2: below it, but not far or for long, except in 2022
55 of 647 weekly closes have been below the line. That's 8.5%. By daily close it's 8.3%.
Most breaks were small. Apart from 2022, the deepest bottom was 12% below the line. Most stretches below it lasted a few weeks.
2022 was different. Bitcoin first closed a week below the line on 19 June 2022, at $20,553. Anyone who bought there as "the floor" then watched it fall another 23%, to $15,766 in November 2022. At the low it was 34% below the line. It stayed below for 30 weeks in a row, until March 2023.
The lowest daily close of each bottom, against the 200-week line that day. Only December 2018 held.
Finding 3: a year later, always higher
Here's the part that keeps the line popular. 52 weekly closes below the line have a full year of data after them. Every single one was followed by a higher price a year later.
The median gain was 123%, and the worst was +15%. After any weekly close, 70% were higher a year later, with a median gain of 68%. Two years out, every week below the line was still higher, with a median gain of 326%.
Before you treat that as a rule, look at the sample. Those 52 weeks come from only eight stretches below the line, in three periods: 2015, 2020 and 2022-23. That's three or four real tests, not 52. And even in the good cases, buyers in June 2022 sat through another 23% fall first.
What people say
The 200-week line is the floor.
- Bitcoin never closes below it.
- Buying at the line means buying the bottom.
- It's never lost money from there.
What the data says
A rough zone, not a floor.
- Four of five bottoms closed below it.
- In 2022 it fell another 23% after breaking it.
- A year later, all 52 weeks below it were higher.
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Try the free lesson →Finding 4: the line has never fallen
The 200-week line moves slowly. It hasn't fallen in a single week since 2014, not even in 2022. Price fell below it, but the line itself kept rising.
It's rising more slowly, though. In 2017 the line rose 244%. In 2026, so far, it has risen 16%. It stands at $65,836 today.
Finding 5: the tops are getting closer to the line
The line is also a way to measure how stretched a bull market got. At the December 2017 top, bitcoin was 17 times its 200-week line. In March 2021, the most it reached was 6 times. In December 2024, it was 2.5 times.
The highest daily close in each cycle, divided by the 200-week line that day.
That fits what our halving-cycle and all-time-high studies found. Bitcoin's swings are shrinking as it grows. The multiple that marked the 2017 top hasn't come close since.
Finding 6: where bitcoin sits now
On 3 October 2026, bitcoin closed at $84,747. The 200-week line was $65,836, so price was 29% above it.
It got close this summer. Bitcoin closed three single weeks below the line between June and August 2026. Its lowest close, on 30 June 2026, was 6% below it. None of those weeks has a full year after it yet, so they aren't in Finding 3.
How to read it
- Treat the 200-week line as a zone, not a floor. Price has closed below it at most big bottoms.
- Don't go all in at the line. In 2022, price kept falling for months after it broke.
- Use it to judge how cheap or stretched bitcoin is. Near the line has been cheap. Several times above it has been late in a bull market.
- Remember the sample is tiny. A handful of bottoms can't promise the next one will behave.
- If you invest a fixed amount every month, you don't have to time the line at all.
What is bitcoin's 200-week moving average?
It's the average of bitcoin's last 200 weekly closes, almost four years of prices. On 3 October 2026 it was $65,836, and bitcoin was 29% above it.
Has bitcoin ever gone below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. 55 of 647 weekly closes since 2014 were below it, in 2015, 2020, 2022-23 and 2026. The longest stretch was 30 weeks, from June 2022 to March 2023.
Is the 200-week moving average the bottom for bitcoin?
Not exactly. Only one of five big bottoms since 2014 held above it, in December 2018. The others went 12% or less below it, except 2022, which went 34% below.
Is it a good time to buy when bitcoin is below the 200-week moving average?
In the past, yes, on a one-year view. All 52 weekly closes below the line were higher a year later, with a median gain of 123%. But those weeks come from only a few bear markets, and in 2022 price fell another 23% first. This isn't advice.
Method, and what this cannot tell you
We took bitcoin's daily close in US dollars from July 2010 to 3 October 2026: Coin Metrics' reference rate up to August 2011, and Bitstamp from September 2011, the same exchange as our other bitcoin studies. The 200-week moving average is the plain average of the last 200 Sunday closes. It needs almost four years of history, so the line starts in May 2014. A weekly close below the line is a Sunday close under it. A line built from Coin Metrics' prices alone was never more than 0.7% away from ours.
- Closes only, in UTC. A dip below the line during the day that recovered by the close doesn't count.
- The line starts in May 2014, so the 2011 and 2013 crashes aren't in this test.
- Five bottoms is a small sample. The next one doesn't have to behave like any of them.
- The 52 weekly closes below the line come from eight stretches in three periods: 2015, 2020 and 2022-23. They aren't 52 separate tests.
- Some charting sites build the line from a different exchange or a different day of the week. Their line can sit a few per cent away from ours.
- Prices before 2015 differ from one exchange to the next. That matters most for the 2015 low.
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