Trading term

What is DVOL (bitcoin volatility index)?

DVOL is Deribit's implied volatility index for bitcoin (and, separately, ether): a single number for how much movement the options market is pricing over the next 30 days, built the way the VIX is built for the S&P 500. It is quoted as an annualised percentage. A reading of 50 means about 2.6% a day or 14% a month, one standard deviation, either direction.

Deribit, where most bitcoin and ether options trade, takes a strip of options expiring around thirty days out and solves for the volatility their prices imply, then publishes that number continuously. It has existed since March 2021. Like the VIX, it is a forecast: not how much bitcoin has moved, but how much traders are paying for it to move.

To turn it into something usable, divide by the square root of 365 for a daily move or multiply by the square root of 30/365 (about 0.29) for a monthly one. Those are one-sigma figures — the market's guess is that two days in three land inside the daily one. The index has ranged from the low 30s to over 150 on bitcoin. Its level has fallen as the market has matured: the median reading was near 90 in 2021 and near 40 in 2026. Ether's index runs higher than bitcoin's because ether moves more.

Scored against the volatility that actually followed, the index has run above it on about seven days in ten, by a median of ten points — the volatility risk premium. When it has been wrong, it has been wrong on sudden crashes that started from ordinary readings. And it is not reliably a fear gauge: in 2023 and 2024 its biggest jumps came on days bitcoin rallied, the opposite of the VIX's habit.

For example

DVOL reads 40. Divide by 19 (the square root of 365): about 2.1% a day. Multiply by 0.29: about 11.5% over the next month. If bitcoin is at $100,000, the options market is pricing a one-sigma range of roughly $88,500 to $111,500 thirty days out, and paying option premiums to match.

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Why it matters to you

It is the one number that says whether bitcoin options are cheap or expensive right now, independent of direction, and it is the price of any hedge you might buy. Read against its own trailing year it also tells you where the market is on the fear-calm cycle — and because a high reading tends to be followed by a lower one and a calmer month than priced, it is a better forecast of itself than of the price.

⚠ Reading a high DVOL as a sell signal

A high reading means options are expensive because a big move is priced in — it says nothing about which way. From the top tenth of bitcoin's readings the next month was up about half the time, the same as from the bottom tenth. What a high reading did forecast reliably was that the index itself would be lower in a month.

Frequently asked questions

What is DVOL?

Deribit's volatility index: the 30-day implied volatility of bitcoin (or ether) backed out of option prices on the exchange, published as an annualised percentage. It is the crypto equivalent of the VIX.

How do I convert DVOL to an expected move?

Divide by about 19 for a one-day move and multiply by about 0.29 for a 30-day move. A DVOL of 60 is roughly 3.1% a day and 17% a month, one standard deviation either way.

What is a high DVOL?

It depends on the year. Readings above 100 were common in 2021 and have not printed since late 2022; in 2025 and 2026 the index has mostly sat between the mid-30s and the 60s, so a reading in the 70s is high by recent standards. Compare it with its own trailing year rather than with a fixed number.

Read the full guide

DerivativesHow to Read Implied VolatilityImplied volatility is the options market's forecast of how much a price will move. Deribit's DVOL puts one for bitcoin and ether in a single number, like the VIX. Five and a half years of daily readings scored against what followed say the forecast runs high on most days, misses on the crash, buys too much protection against ordinary days and too little against the day that matters — and that the 'fear index' spent two years rising on rallies instead.12 min read

Related terms

Call optionA call option is a contract giving the buyer the right — but not the obligation — to buy an asset at a fixed 'strike' price before a set expiry date. Call buyers are betting the price will rise; their risk is capped at the premium paid, while the potential profit is open-ended.Cash-secured putA cash-secured put is an options strategy where you sell a put option while setting aside enough cash to buy the stock if you're assigned. You collect the premium as income; in exchange, you agree to buy the stock at the strike if it falls there. It's a way to get paid to buy a stock you want at a lower price.Covered callA covered call is an options strategy where you own 100 shares of a stock and sell a call option against them. You collect the premium as income; in exchange, you cap your upside at the strike. It's a popular way to generate income on shares you're happy to hold or sell.DeltaDelta measures how much an option's price moves for each $1 change in the underlying. A delta of 0.60 means the option gains about $0.60 if the stock rises $1. It ranges from 0 to 1 for calls (0 to −1 for puts) and doubles as a rough probability the option finishes in the money.
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