Trading term

What is Real interest rate?

The real interest rate is what's left of a rate once inflation has taken its share, so it measures the growth in what your money can actually buy. It isn't nominal minus inflation: 5% against 3% inflation is 1.94%, not 2%.

An account paying 5% while prices rise 3% does not leave you 5% better off. You have 5% more dollars and each dollar buys less than it did. The rate on the statement is the nominal rate. What the money buys at the end of the year is the real rate, and that second number is the one that decides whether you gained anything.

Almost everyone subtracts, and subtracting is wrong. The right form divides: take one plus the nominal rate, divide by one plus inflation, then subtract one. At 5% and 3% that's 1.05 divided by 1.03, which gives 1.94%. Subtraction says 2%. The reason for the gap is that the interest you earned also gets spent at next year's higher prices, so inflation shrinks your gain as well as your original money.

At small numbers the error is tiny and the shortcut survives. At 5% against 3% inflation it's about six hundredths of a point. Push the numbers up and it stops being cosmetic: 16% against 12% inflation is really 3.57%, while the subtraction confidently reports 4%. Real rates also go negative, and they often have. An account paying 0.40% while prices rise 2% has a real rate of −1.57%, so the balance grows and buys less each year.

For example

You earn 5% on a deposit and prices rise 3% that year. Divide instead of subtracting: 1.05 ÷ 1.03 − 1 = 1.94%. Your money buys 1.94% more than it did, not the 2% the shortcut promised.

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Why it matters to you

Every decision about money is really a decision about the real rate. A 16% deposit rate in a year when prices rose 12% is a worse deal than 3% in a year when prices barely moved. Nominal numbers are what get quoted, compared and remembered, and two of them from different decades can't be compared at all until you attach inflation to each one.

Nominal minus inflation is the wrong formula

It's taught everywhere as a shortcut and it's close enough at low rates that nobody notices. That's exactly what makes it dangerous. It's off in the flattering direction, so it always overstates what you made, and the error grows with the rate. Use it for a rough feel. Divide when you need the answer.

Frequently asked questions

What's the difference between the real and the nominal interest rate?

The nominal rate is the number quoted on the account or the loan. The real rate is that number after inflation has been taken out, which tells you how much more your money can buy. Nominal counts dollars; real counts what the dollars are worth.

How do you calculate the real interest rate?

Divide one plus the nominal rate by one plus the inflation rate, then subtract one. With a 5% rate and 3% inflation: 1.05 ÷ 1.03 − 1 = 1.94%. This is called the Fisher relation.

Can the real interest rate be negative?

Yes, and it frequently is. Any time inflation runs above the rate you're earning, your real rate is below zero. A 0.40% savings account during 2% inflation gives a real rate of −1.57%: your balance rises while your buying power falls.

Why doesn't nominal minus inflation work?

Because the interest you earn is spent at next year's prices too, so inflation reduces the gain as well as the original sum. Subtracting only takes inflation off the original money and forgets the interest, which is why it always flatters the answer.

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